Tomorrowland: How Trend Forecaster Emma Chiu Predicts The Future

The worldwide director of Wunderman Thompson Intelligence, the world-spanning advertising and marketing communications company’s in-house futures suppose tank, advises manufacturers on easy methods to transfer on the velocity of tradition

Emma Chiu lives sooner or later. As the top of Wunderman Thompson’s intelligence division, she spends a variety of time serious about how the patterns and shifts she detects at the moment will likely be translated into vital actions tomorrow. Yearly, the company releases a report known as “The Future 100,” a pattern almanac that charts 100 developments throughout completely different sectors together with tradition, tech, magnificence, and well being. The insights from the report, which is freely out there, are focused to manufacturers that wish to rise above the noise and make an actual affect on the planet at the moment. 

SM Supermalls invited Chiu to talk, together with Outliers writer Malcom Gladwell, at its Tenant-Companions Summit celebrating the sixty fifth anniversary of the corporate. Chiu shared her observations on the joyconomy, the place regardless of the continuing financial and environmental disaster, persons are selecting pleasure. She famous alternatives for manufacturers lie in with the ability to re-enchant their prospects and offering alternatives for play throughout all ages. 

Vogue Philippines sat down with Chiu on the Conrad Manila to speak about understanding patterns, the joyconomy, and no matter occurred to the metaverse.    

Photographs by Kim Santos

Hello, Emma! You’re a pattern forecaster, however you’re additionally known as a futurist, which looks as if a very cool job description. What I wish to know is, how did you find yourself with this profession, what was your path? 

So my diploma is in graphic design. And I began off as a designer, and I type of fell into editorial as a result of I’ve all the time had a ardour for English as properly. My first job in developments was at The Future Laboratory, and there I realized loads about understanding developments, the distinction between completely different generations and understanding how completely different components can affect tradition. What was attention-grabbing is that everybody got here from very attention-grabbing backgrounds. So that they had been style designers, journalists,  graphic designers. It’s simply this very design-led means of wanting on the world which provides to the best way you concentrate on developments, you don’t simply give it some thought in a tutorial means. Despite the fact that that’s essential, you’re additionally serious about how developments look. For those who’re wanting by way of any of my pattern experiences, even for those who flick by way of it and also you don’t learn a single phrase, you may get a way of what the developments are like. 

Being a graphic designer,  the pure path could be changing into a artistic director, however I all the time knew that wouldn’t be my pure profession path. However I didn’t know the place my profession path could be. So I used to be very fortunate with my first job on the Future Laboratory.

Even the identify seems like one thing out of a sci-fi novel. What decade was this?

This was 2011 to 2012, so I used to be there simply over a 12 months after which I took a 12 months out to journey the world. However I cherished working a lot. I couldn’t think about not working. After which as quickly as I took the break day, I couldn’t think about going again to work. In order that’s the humorous factor of being in no matter context, you’re simply actually embracing it. After which I moved again into editorial, and I turned an artwork director at Monocle journal—which is why I’m often on the opposite aspect of shoots. Being there for just a few years made me understand I nonetheless get pleasure from pattern observations and I’m so fascinated with what persons are as much as and what they’re like, on a broader chicken’s eye view of the world. And that’s what my job permits me to do, actually see the world in a means the place I don’t have to be biased in any means. 

One factor we are inclined to attempt to not be an excessive amount of of is damaging. So we attempt to strategy developments from a constructive means, even when there’s troublesome issues occurring. It’s one thing we have to observe, however there’s all the time constructive components that stems from troublesome occasions. 

So for instance, the local weather disaster, proper. How would you spin that to a constructive?

I feel the local weather disaster is a good instance. There’s so many components of it the place it feels prefer it’s one thing so large and out of our management that we are able to’t actually do a lot about it. However what we’ve realized is that each little step issues. Even small contributions can mount as much as one thing bigger. My position may be fairly instrumental on this space as a result of the type of purchasers that we have now are fairly massive firms and these massive purchasers, I’m able to communicate to them and recommend broader, greater adjustments, whether or not it’s environmental or societal. I’ve the chance to make options, asking them to take steps into including extra good into the world. 

Once we take into consideration sustainability, typically it’s about doing much less unhealthy. However now we’re studying that much less unhealthy isn’t ok. And we have to really take into consideration injecting extra good into the world. So how can we do this and be fairly artistic find options? Think about pitching this to an enormous firm. For them, they don’t know the place to start out. And so they’re like, properly, which means we have now to alter every little thing, our manufacturing course of, provide, it actually goes down the chain. We’re not anticipating to alter every little thing in a single go.

As a result of I work within the futures division, that falls below technique. So serving to them plan a long run strategic plan when it comes to how they are often in 5 and 10 years, it’s fairly thrilling to be a part of that journey with them and to verify in every now and then to be like, are you continue to doing this? Are we heading in the right direction? 

Are you able to give an instance of a consumer who type of adopted these steps by way of?

So much are of their early phases, however we have now Unilever, one among our large purchasers. And for them, even incorporating issues like inclusive merchandise is one thing that they’re wanting into, and we labored with them to create a deodorant that’s accessible for individuals who have completely different limb disabilities. So the best way we have now designed the packaging makes it accessible for sure individuals who have several types of disabilities. It has just a little hook, so that you don’t have to seize it, mainly. With the ability to affect packaging and design in that means is kind of thrilling for us. And so they all begin off as small scale initiatives that they tried in a selected location, however I feel it may possibly ladder up into one thing greater finally, and a variety of issues do take time and endurance. 

Simply with the ability to see the place the buyer pulse is at, there’s much more authority when it comes to asking firms to alter sure methods and even proceed sure methods they could be doing one thing that’s nice already. And it does align with the place persons are at now, even the following technology, what their pursuits are, what their values are.  It’s actually essential to have the ability to share this data in a means that feels accessible, in a means that folks can actually perceive and digest it, and have time to innovate inside that house as properly. It’s not me telling them precisely what to do, however giving them alternatives to work inside an open house. 

In editorial as we’re at Vogue, we often report on what’s occurring or interpret the rising developments that we see.  However your work is in forecasting and prediction—how do you go from what the children are doing these days to one thing that’s future oriented?

With a view to actually perceive the longer term, it’s essential to know what’s occurring now, but in addition to map out pattern strains. And I’m positive it’s one thing comparable that you simply do as a result of you’ll want to have a look at the previous, to know why issues are occurring now and establish completely different patterns. After which, primarily based on these observations and understanding and patterns, assist predict what’s going to occur subsequent. I feel predicting individuals’s habits is, I don’t wish to say “simple.”

As a result of persons are predictable.

In some methods, sure. There’s issues that folks from completely different generations keep on with and that comes from the best way they’ve been raised. You realize, tradition, environment, the entry they should data. With the youthful technology, they’ve data on the contact of their fingertips 24 hours a day. In that means, you possibly can perceive the place issues may very well be main. And it’s no shock typically when digital natives all of the sudden wish to be utterly digital free, all of the sudden they’re going to need dumb telephones and Nokias, and it’s as a result of they wish to attempt one thing completely different. A number of issues which can be occurring aren’t surprises.

Traits—as we all know in style—are cyclical.

Precisely. I’m positive you see this loads in developments that you simply’re observing that utterly loops again to sure occasions and you are taking inspiration from the previous. You study from it, however there’s additionally a variety of innovation in expertise, and the way that may be guaranteeing issues extra artistic, extra modern, and only a bit extra open and various. Once you’re serious about what issues will likely be occurring for years to return, as a result of typically individuals ask, are you able to assure that can occur in 10 years? Probably not. As a result of who would have guessed a pandemic would occur–and that utterly modified a variety of issues. 

A number of issues that we forecast in 5 to 10 years really accelerated due to the pandemic, and a variety of issues utterly modified due to the pandemic. I feel there may very well be greater forces and components that come into play that may actually change developments. However that’s the level, developments needs to be fairly nimble as properly. There needs to be a stage of flexibility inside it. However broader themes ought to stay fairly constant, I might say. Sure themes that we’re seeing when it comes to individuals wanting a way of positivity and pleasure, that’s actually simply human nature. It’s an enormous a part of what retains us going, of what makes us wish to work in direction of and work exhausting in direction of a very constructive future. So most of these themes are macro developments. 

Once more, it’s one thing that’s innately human, however I actually love highly effective actions which can be occurring due to the individuals, [such as] sure feminist actions or inclusive actions that we’re seeing that’s being addressed, or issues that had been as soon as taboo that’s now brazenly talked about. I really feel very lucky to be residing on this age, to be a part of this dialog and to speak about developments on this context, as a result of it’s now not the choose few who’ve a voice, it’s everybody. And with that, every little thing is extra amplified. 

So this motion in direction of pleasure, or the “joyconomy” which you talked about on the SM Tenant-Companion Convention, it’s not a brand new factor as a result of, as you talked about, it’s a part of human nature. Has there been an acceleration of this motion? What led to this?

I feel there’s simply been a large want for it. On the onset of the pandemic, campaigns and adverts that had been making an attempt to supply a way of hope and pleasure had a variety of backlash, as a result of individuals thought it was actually insensitive throughout this very troublesome time that folks had been going by way of. And so advertisements had been very delicate, had a extra subdued tone and had been extra empathetic. However then nobody would have guessed the pandemic would final like two to 3 years. It’s uncommon for people to undergo such an enormous change for that prolonged time period on a worldwide scale as properly. So having gone by way of that, they nearly want this emotional launch of positivity and uplift. 

In order that’s why we speak about pleasure, however it’s not nearly pleasure. We have now a report known as “Reenchantment.”  Individuals wish to really feel enchanted once more, they need this factor of pleasure, delight and shock of their life, that maybe they uncared for for just a few years. All the pieces needed to be identified, you didn’t need any surprises at the moment. Whereas now it’s like, we wouldn’t thoughts a dose of shock, and you may see this in client developments with issues that had been on individuals’s bucket lists, one thing they are going to do once they retire, they’re doing it now as a result of they simply don’t know what’s going to occur tomorrow. Considered one of my colleagues says, “I don’t suppose twice about if I need one thing, I’m gonna purchase it.”  And it’s that type of millennial strategy. 

YOLO.

Precisely. You solely dwell as soon as, and it’s attention-grabbing as a result of when Millennials had been doing it, it felt fairly reckless to older generations. However now everybody can actually establish with that simply because it simply feels a bit nearer when it comes to how fickle and valuable life may be. Maybe superficially, issues appear to be it’s again to regular, however individuals’s mindset have shifted. And there may be this thirst for change. Individuals don’t wish to return to regular if it was unjust, or the social societal norms weren’t serving sure genders or individuals with completely different backgrounds. And with that in thoughts, I feel there may be going to be a much bigger shift in demand from individuals for presidency or massive firms or influential figures to do extra on this house and to speak extra vocally about these subjects.

Going again to your Future 100 report which you make yearly. There should be some overlap, or do you must provide you with 100 new concepts annually?

There are occasions after we provide you with some developments and we’re like, wait, we’ve written about this final 12 months already! So yeah, it does occur. 100 is loads (laughs). A number of the time it’s an evolution of issues which have occurred already. So after we talked about sure developments like sustainability, we advanced it into regeneration. 

I typically speak about pattern mapping. It’s good to all the time search for threads with what’s been occurring earlier than, like in-person interactions or experiences. Once more, not essentially new, however the kinds of experiences and what we wish from these in-person experiences may very well be evolving and altering, or they might not as properly. And typically developments aren’t all the time about large adjustments. I might say, particularly with the youthful technology, and particularly with expertise, it’s more durable now for developments to only stand nonetheless.

Talking of expertise, how a lot do you employ AI in predicting developments?

I don’t, really. One of many first questions I requested ChatGPT was “how do I clarify pattern forecasting to a 10-year-old?” I’ve two nieces, they all the time marvel what I do they usually all the time joke and name me a witch, somebody who can look into the longer term, type of like a fortune teller. I’ve all the time needed to elucidate to them in easy phrases what a pattern forecaster is, and truly ChatGPT was very useful as a result of they in contrast it to somebody making a toy for teenagers and the way they’re making an attempt to foretell what youngsters could be fascinated with, in 5 years time.

However once I requested ChatGPT “what are the developments for subsequent 12 months?” They will’t as a result of their database is restricted to 2021. Which made me really feel, okay, my job could be very protected (Laughs). However it additionally made me suppose there’s going to be a variety of artistic house for individuals the place AI can help them to a sure level, as a result of I can ask AI to assist analyze developments that I’ve already predicted, and assist measure how profitable they’ve been. However I can’t ask AI to foretell what’s going to occur within the years forward. I may, if I requested it otherwise, however they wouldn’t firmly say “that is going to occur.” So it does take a component of qualitative evaluation so as to add that futuristic layer in.

Photographs by Kim Santos

What sort of analysis is concerned and the way do you collect knowledge to make these forecasts?

We do have our personal quantitative knowledge group who can run surveys as large and as international as we wish to. The Future 100 that will likely be launched in January of subsequent 12 months will likely be our tenth version. We’re going to be operating some knowledge alongside that, and we’re going to be asking shoppers globally completely different questions on their hopes for the 12 months forward, expectations they’ve of various firms and types, but in addition how they’re feeling proper now. With a view to make sure that our developments are on the best path, we prefer to measure the temperature of the place persons are at. 

So there’s a quantitative aspect that’s essential, however there may be additionally a qualitative aspect.  I’m somebody who always watches the information, however I might watch the information with a developments evaluation layer on as a result of if there’s one thing occurring on the planet, it may be impacting us, economically. It may be impacting us on a type of each day life-style foundation when it comes to how we spend. A part of my analysis is knowing who’s doing what and why they’re doing it and if there are behavioral earnings variations and even generational influences. 

You say you watch a variety of information, do you additionally learn sci-fi authors?

In my spare time I do prefer to learn fiction. However I might say these days I’m additionally actually fascinated with studying a variety of psychology-based books, and the podcasts I are inclined to take heed to are primarily based on habits. One podcast I actually get pleasure from listening to is Hidden Mind, and each episode focuses on completely different behavioral traits so why do individuals really feel extra lonely? Or why is sleep so essential?  I really like what I do as a result of it’s mainly having a very good perception into individuals’s behaviors. And the best way I work, as a result of it’s all the time linked to manufacturers and what manufacturers can do with that understanding, has a unique type of narrative whereas a variety of the issues I get pleasure from doing on the aspect are a bit extra greater considering and broader. 

I’ve a report known as “New Realities” and I imagine the youthful technology, their understanding of what’s actual, goes to be very completely different due to expertise. When AR and combined actuality turn into extra accessible, for them, actuality gained’t simply be what’s bodily, will probably be that mix. Whereas older generations, they nonetheless have that differentiation of digital and analog. That’s one thing that I’m personally fairly fascinated with, however I can solely go to date. 

That’s actually fascinating, it’s like an existential dilemma. What’s actuality, proper?

That’s really one of many books I’m studying now,  What’s Actuality? It’s one thing fairly exhausting for me to convey to purchasers and say, “Hey, I’m actually fascinated with understanding the place actuality is heading.” And for them it’s like, “Properly, how does that assist us?” So with the ability to have my pursuits and work affect one another is useful as a result of it makes me get pleasure from what I do every day.

So in 2021, 2022, there was this entire large metaverse explosion. Everybody was speaking concerning the metaverse and needed to get into the metaverse. This 12 months, would you say it’s been fulfilling its promise? The place is the metaverse at proper now?

Good query, as a result of clearly the metaverse has gone by way of a really excessive up, and it went by way of a really large crash as properly. And lately I wrote an article known as “Did Advertising and marketing Kill the Metaverse?” as a result of I actually imagine the metaverse remains to be one thing very distinguished and essential. After I communicate to purchasers concerning the metaverse and if it feels actually on the market for them, I typically say, “Look, if I took the phrase metaverse out of every little thing I’m saying, I’m simply speaking concerning the evolution of expertise.” So if I change the phrase metaverse with tech, it’d be very completely different. 

I do suppose the metaverse remains to be essential and whether or not we determine to proceed utilizing that phrase or not is as much as us. However there was simply a lot consideration on that phrase metaverse and notably when Fb transitioned into Meta and have become a metaverse-first firm and a variety of massive firms all of the sudden stated, Hey, we’re going to have metaverse departments. The rise and fall of that was very fast. It turned too overhyped earlier than it actually absolutely received to take off. I imagine advertising and marketing groups had a serving to hand in its demise, however it’s nonetheless one thing that lots of people are engaged on. it’s  simply an integral a part of the place tech is heading. 

There’s going to be an evolution of the metaverse the place it’s not solely in these three dimensional digital worlds, it’s going to increase into our bodily worlds and that’s the half which will likely be extra accessible and extra extensively used. Individuals robotically suppose the metaverse is about gaming and all our children. However it’s not simply solely for the youthful technology. It may be a instrument that we are able to all use, however having the entry and in addition the infrastructure have to catch up. As a result of for those who don’t have the bandwidth, you’re not going to attend such a very long time to load a digital world. 

That’s actually how individuals had envisioned the longer term, strolling round with digital actuality goggles like Robocop.

I feel Apple’s Imaginative and prescient Professional is a very attention-grabbing piece of expertise to have as a part of this ecosystem as a result of it’s a piece of expertise and a product they’ve created the place you look by way of and never at, and due to that, sooner or later our glasses may have these talents. There’s an organization who’s creating contact lenses, and it’s in idea stage for the time being, however the place you can even convey up a digital layer in entrance of you, which supplies your up-to-date well being stats. Yeah, sooner or later issues like this may very well be occurring.

Photographs by Kim Santos

We’re really changing into cyborgs, type of.

Type of! How typically are you holding your cellphone, however think about if it was one thing less complicated, extra seamless. I’m not saying that we’re going to have a chip within us anytime quickly, however I feel we may have the choice of placing on or taking up and off tech equipment which can be less complicated. If my Apple Watch may do a variety of issues that my cellphone does, I might simply use the watch. And if my Oura ring may very well be doing extra of that, I might use my Oura ring solely. It’s about comfort, it’s about mixing in. Finally sooner or later tech could be seamlessly mixing in with our environment and never one thing that’s obtrusive and in your face.

Do you additionally warn individuals concerning the risks and pitfalls of expertise?

Completely. When there’s all this constructive stuff occurring, there’s clearly this flipside of negativity that’s coming. A big a part of why a variety of the youthful technology are turning away from expertise—we’re calling them the brand new Luddites—is basically as a result of there’s a variety of negativity on social platforms, or there’s a type of stress in terms of expertise that they simply wish to disconnect from. You will need to have that wholesome stability, and that’s every little thing in life. So it’s discovering that joyful medium, that joyful stability of being technologically engaged, but in addition being conscious that it’s not going to take over your life. 

There’s this different layer the place governments and large tech firms have to be extra considerate about individuals’s private data and knowledge. What are they doing with it? Why do you want this a lot data to ensure that me to course of one thing? However we’re equally conscious that we wish comfort and never should re-input our bank card particulars on a regular basis. This goes again to the bigger view of how persons are taking extra management of the place issues are heading and the place the brand new regular is heading. Sooner or later, the management, in terms of private data and knowledge, will return to the individuals. It’s only a matter of time.

With all of the work you do on expertise, how do you prefer to unplug?

My cellphone is all the time on silent. I verify it once I have to verify it. That’s type of how I unplug digitally and I’ve all the time been aware of that. Typically it’s about disconnecting and simply doing one thing open air and reconnecting with nature. And it’s a pattern that we’ve additionally been recognizing. So I do really feel like typically what I’m doing is on pattern (laughs). 

However there may be that massive thirst for being a part of nature and actually appreciating what’s round us. The parks and rivers that we have now in London, they’re one thing that I typically go to. Every single day if attainable, I am going for a stroll. For me that’s actually essential to have that point and house to suppose. However yeah, work is one thing that I all the time do. And there’s a variety of analysis round how walks could make you suppose extra creatively as properly.